The Next Two Weeks, Not the Patriots, Will Decide Fate of the 2016 Steelers

When the NFL schedule was released this past April, multiple games were circled on the Steelers schedule. The duals with Cincinnati for AFC North supremacy, Thanksgiving night in primetime vs. Andrew Luck, and the renewal of the teams of the ’70’s as the Dallas Cowboys make their way to Heinz Field in November were all looked upon with high intrigue. But one stood out above the rest as what would be the test - the deciding factor for the AFC playoff picture in January.

October 23. Heinz Field. Big Ben vs. Brady. Belicheck’s defensive schemes vs. Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and co. Now after week four, Brady is back, both teams sit at 3-1, and at least hold a share of their division lead as we draw nearer to that showdown at 4:25 in Pittsburgh in late October. Lets pump the brakes. In order for the matchup with the Patriots to hold any significance, and in order for the Steelers to prove the 2016 version of this team is a real contender, they must first handle the Jets and the Dolphins.

It seems like crazy talk, right? The Jets? Their quarterback has thrown nine interceptions in the past two weeks and six of those came against the Chiefs. The Chiefs, a team in which the Steelers just throttled 43-14. Eric Decker won’t be on the field opposite Brandon Marshall, limiting Fitzpatrick another weapon to attack the Steelers secondary. Not to mention the Jets defense have allowed 1,100+ passing yards, eight touchdowns, and a 116 passer rating in four games this season. With a banged up Darrelle Revis lonely on his own island, and the Big Ben-Antonio Brown connection starting to thrive again, this matchup should be spell doom for NY.

One should not forget the November contest in 2014 between the Jets and Steelers at MetLife Stadium, though. Pittsburgh came into that contest riding a three-game win streak, averaging over 40 points-per-game in those wins over the likes of the Texans, Colts, and Ravens. Then, almost inexplicably, they sputtered in New Jersey only scoring 13 points, committing three turnovers, and lost to the then 1-8 New York Jets. A loss that turned out to be the difference between an 11-5 season and a three-seed in the AFC playoffs to 12-4 season and a bye in the first round of the postseason.

That loss to the Jets in 2014 wasn’t a one-time anamoly. This trend for the Steelers goes all the way back to the 2012 season. Lets take a painful walk down memory lane, Steelers fans.

In 2012, the Steelers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs for the first time in two years and began a two-year drought from postseason action. Once again, the difference between extending it’s season into January and only playing 16 games for the Steelers was the inability to handle teams they should. A week three loss to an Oakland Raiders team who finished 4-12, and a week six loss to a Tennessee Titans team who finished 6-10 held the Steelers to a .500 record in a division that was won by a 10-6 team.

Now back to 2014. Pittsburgh won the AFC North at 11-5. The Steelers recorded wins against quality, playoff opponents like the Colts, Ravens, Bengals (twice), Chiefs, and at Atlanta. But, again, it was the head-scratching losses that held back the true potential of a deep playoff run. Falling at home to the two-win Buccaneers and stumbling on the road against the four-win Jets kept the Steelers from being 13-3 and the number one seed in the AFC.

Mike Tomlin’s teams have rarely not shown up for notable games. Since his tenure began in 2007, the Steelers are 30-16 in primetime games and 38-18 against their division rivals. Not only that, but even in years like 2012 and 2013 when Pittsburgh finished 8-8, they still posted impressive wins on the road against quality opponents and quarterbacks like the Giants and Ravens. These games have never been the issue. The issue lies within the inability to handle business up to the standard, as Tomlin would say.

The Steelers could very likely end up putting a beating on the seemingly unbeatable New England Patriots at Heinz Field on October 23. Its happened before. But what happens with this Steelers team in January will be decided by what they do the weeks prior to playing the first-place Patriots against the one-win Jets and Dolphins.